Helper functions to make expert elicitation easier
Assists with the construction of probability distributions built from expert elicited data for use in monte carlo simulations.
Usage
Until this is packaged for pip, copy elicit_distibutions.py in your code. Then:
elicited is just a helper tool when using numpy and scipy, so you’ll need these too.
import numpy as np
import scipy
Lognormal
See Occurance and Applications for examples of lognormal distributions in nature.
Expert: I have assets at risk that would generate a wide range of losses.
Elicitor: What is the most common value of these assets?
Expert: About $ 20K (
val_mod)Elicitor: What’s the largest asset value you can imagine?